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The objective is to understand the role of emerging variants, vaccination, and NPI policies on COVID-19 infections and deaths. We aim to identify scenarios in which COVID-19 can be managed such that the death rate from COVID-19 becomes comparable with the combined annual mortality rate from influenza and pneumonia. As a case study for a large urban area, we simulate COVID-19 transmission in King County, Washington, (greater Seattle) using an agent- based simulation model. Calibrated to local epidemiological data, our study uses detailed synthetic population data and includes interactions between vaccination and specific NPIs while considering waning immunity and emergence of variants. Virus mutation scenarios include 12 combinations of infectivity, disease severity, and immune evasiveness. A highly effective pancoronavirus vaccine that works against all strains is considered an optimistic scenario. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of pancoronavirus vaccines that offer enhanced and longer-lasting immunity. We emphasize the crucial role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing COVID-19 deaths regardless of virus mutation scenarios. Owing to highly immune evasive and contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, most scenarios in this study fail to reduce the mortality of COVID-19 to the level of influenza and pneumonia. However, our findings indicate that periodic vaccinations and a threshold nonpharmaceutical intervention policy may succeed in achieving this goal. This indicates the need for caution and vigilance in managing a continuing COVID-19 epidemic. 

In addition to the intrinsic clustering of galaxies themselves, the spatial distribution of galaxies observed in surveys is modulated by the presence of weak lensing due to matter in the foreground. This effect, known as magnification bias, is a significant contaminant to analyses of galaxy-lensing cross-correlations and must be carefully modelled. We present a method to estimate the magnification bias in spectroscopically confirmed galaxy samples based on finite differences of galaxy catalogues while marginalizing over errors due to finite step size. We use our estimator to measure the magnification biases of the CMASS and LOWZ samples in the SDSS BOSS galaxy survey, analytically taking into account the dependence on galaxy shape for fibre and PSF magnitudes, finding αCMASS = 2.71 ± 0.02 and αLOWZ = 2.45 ± 0.02 and quantify modelling uncertainties in these measurements. Finally, we quantify the redshift evolution of the magnification bias within the CMASS and LOWZ samples, finding a difference of up to a factor of three between the lower and upper redshift bounds for the former. We discuss how to account for this evolution in modelling and its interaction with commonly applied redshift-dependent weights. Our method should be readily applicable to upcoming surveys and we make our code publicly available as part of this work.

 

Abstract We present a new method for consistent, joint analysis of the pre- and post-reconstruction galaxy two-point functions of the BOSS survey. The post-reconstruction correlation function is used to accurately measure the distance-redshift relation and expansion history, while the pre-reconstruction power spectrum multipoles constrain the broad-band shape and the rate-of-growth of large-scale structure. Our technique uses Lagrangian perturbation theory to self-consistently work at the level of two-point functions, i.e. directly with the measured data, without approximating the constraints with summary statistics normalized by the drag scale. Combining galaxies across the full redshift range and both hemispheres we constrain Ω m  = 0.303 ± 0.0082, H 0  = 69.23 ± 0.77 and σ 8  = 0.733 ± 0.047 within the context of ΛCDM. These constraints are consistent both with the Planck primary CMB anisotropy data and recent cosmic shear surveys. 

We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.